Who will win Lok Sabha elections in 2024? Pre-poll survey says BJP holds

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The BJP holds a commanding 12 per cent lead over the Opposition’s INDIA alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, according to a pre-poll survey by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

Who will win the Lok Sabha 2024 elections? 10 points of survey

1. The BJP holds a significant 12 per cent lead over the Opposition INDIA bloc in the upcoming polls, with four out of ten voters supporting the BJP. The Congress is also expected to make slight gains, but they are unlikely to pose a significant threat.

2. Over half of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the BJP’s 10-year-old government performance, indicating positive inclinations towards giving the Modi government another chance, The Hindu reported.

3. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Modi guarantee’ is gaining traction among voters, giving him an advantage over Rahul Gandhi’s guarantees.

4. Despite maintaining a lead, there’s a notable decline in satisfaction with the government’s performance compared to 2019. Urban areas show lower support for another term.

5. PM Modi’s persona remains a decisive factor, with close to half of the respondents preferring him as the prime minister over Rahul Gandhi.

6. The construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya stands out as Modi’s most admired work, resonating strongly among voters, particularly NDA supporters.

7. Rising prices and increasing unemployment are significant concerns among voters, raising questions about the sustained popularity of Modi and the BJP.

6. Despite economic distress, the BJP maintains its lead, indicating voter sentiments may not align solely with economic performance, presenting a fascinating aspect of the upcoming election.

8. The BJP’s stronghold in the north and west contrasts with limited success in the south, though improvements in states like Karnataka suggest potential gains.

10. Direct contests between BJP and Congress favour the former, but multi-cornered contests show a three-way split in support.

What are the key issues in the Lok Sabha 2024 elections?

1. Concerns over price rise and job scarcity dominate voter sentiments, with over half of respondents expressing worry about these issues, according to the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey, reported Live Mint.

2. A significant majority, comprising 62 per cent of respondents, perceive job acquisition as increasingly challenging, with only 12 per cent feeling otherwise.

3. Across various demographics, including Muslims (67 per cent), Hindus from Other Backward Classes (63 per cent), Scheduled Tribes (59 per cent), and upper castes (57 per cent), the sentiment of job scarcity prevails.

4. The survey underscores the impact of inflation on households, with 71 per cent of respondents reporting an increase in commodity prices, particularly affecting the poor and Muslim communities.

5. Additionally, a majority (55 per cent) perceive a rise in corruption over the past five years, with blame apportioned to both the central government (25 per cent) and state administrations (16 per cent).

The Lokniti-CSDS Pre-Poll survey 2024 collated responses from 10,019 people across 19 states.

Source: The Hindustan Times